Wicked Verify - Will the Democrats win at least 235 House seats and 51 Senate seats at the midterms?

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Rulebook commitment

Committed hash: dae77ca12ac8b8ac59ccf9d5e0e9b731227aaa85c9c74a952483948a0a5e132f

Recomputed hash: dae77ca12ac8b8ac59ccf9d5e0e9b731227aaa85c9c74a952483948a0a5e132f

Commitment intact - the rules were not changed.

The live market still matches the committed rules.

Committed payload

slug=official-will-the-democrats-win-at-least-235-hous-1e070735
resolves_at=2026-12-15T23:00:00Z
opens_at=2026-09-28T21:57:45Z
outcomes=0:YES|1:NO
rulebook=The US midterm elections are held on 3 November 2026. Resolves Yes only if both of these hold once every 2026 race is decided: Democrats win 235 or more seats in the House of Representatives, and Democrats hold 51 or more Senate seats for the 120th Congress (independents who caucus with the Democrats count as Democrats; seats not up in 2026 count for the party holding them). Anything less on either count resolves No. Settled from the certified results published by the relevant state election officials, as compiled by the Associated Press race calls at https://apnews.com/hub/election-results, then from the official House and Senate membership lists when the new Congress is seated on 3 January 2027. Runoffs, recounts and court challenges are followed to their conclusion. If either count is still legally undetermined on 31 January 2027, the market is voided and every stake refunded.

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Rulebook

The US midterm elections are held on 3 November 2026. Resolves Yes only if both of these hold once every 2026 race is decided: Democrats win 235 or more seats in the House of Representatives, and Democrats hold 51 or more Senate seats for the 120th Congress (independents who caucus with the Democrats count as Democrats; seats not up in 2026 count for the party holding them). Anything less on either count resolves No. Settled from the certified results published by the relevant state election officials, as compiled by the Associated Press race calls at https://apnews.com/hub/election-results, then from the official House and Senate membership lists when the new Congress is seated on 3 January 2027. Runoffs, recounts and court challenges are followed to their conclusion. If either count is still legally undetermined on 31 January 2027, the market is voided and every stake refunded.